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A decline in transportation stocks is sending a worrying signal about the broader stock market. Transportation stocks are viewed as a leading indicator because they point to the movement of goods around the country. AdvertisementAdvertisementA steady decline in transportation stocks is sending a worrying signal about the broader stock market and its chances to stage a year-end rally. If companies are seeing a slowdown in growth and their stock prices fall, it could be a grim warning for the rest of the economy and stock market. AdvertisementAdvertisementAnd if the latter happens, crucial support levels would be broken and investors' highly anticipated year-end rally in the stock market, partly explained by bullish seasonals, would be on thin ice.
Persons: , Hunt, Dow Jones, bullish seasonals, J.B, Shelley Simpson, Robert Isom, We're, Isom, Joe Hinrichs, Hinrich, Dow, Manuel Blay, TheDowTheory.com, Dow Industrials Organizations: Service, Dow Jones Transportation, United Airlines, American Airlines, CSX Transportation, Dow, Industrial, CNBC, CSX Locations: Israel
The decrease negatively impacts earnings for both trucking and rail where revenue is generated by moving freight. Ocean freight orders are a leading indicator of train and trucking earnings since 90% of the world's trade moves by water. This is one of three key supply chain charts that are signaling more financial potholes for trucking and rail companies. West Coast ports have been losing trade to both the East Coast ports and Gulf ports as a result of prolonged labor negotiations, though union representatives indicated last week a "tentative agreement" had been reached, but no details were provided. Trucking is needed for both container pick up at the ocean terminals and rail ramps.
"Simply stated we're in a freight recession." That line, uttered last Monday by Shelley Simpson, president of J.B. Hunt (JBHT), the fourth-largest trucking company in the United States, was the most memorable of the real first week of earnings season. If so, it would know that we're dealing with much more than a freight recession. It's not enough to offset the immense deflationary pressure emanating from the regional banks and the freight recession described by J.B. Hunt. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
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Truckers Expect an Inventory-Driven Rebound Later This Year
  + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Liz Young | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +4 min
Trucking companies are pinning hopes for a rebound in freight demand on the second half of this year, saying their retailer customers expect to resume restocking after winding down inventories over recent months. Carrier executives say they are hearing from their shipping customers that they expect to return to a more normal ordering cycle this year and start moving bigger volumes closer to the fall shopping season following volatile retail spending and distribution in 2022 that left them overstocked. Inbound volumes at U.S. ports are also down, suggesting fewer goods from overseas are flowing into domestic freight networks. “Trucking is definitely down right now,” said Tom Nightingale, CEO of AFS Logistics, a Shreveport, La.-based logistics operator. She said on a Jan. 18 earnings conference call that the company “has good signals” from shipping customers that they plan to pick up their ordering in the second quarter.
J.B. Hunt Expects Freight-Demand Volatility to Ease This Year
  + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Paul Page | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +3 min
Trucking and logistics giant J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. expects freight demand to regain traction in the coming months as the pandemic-driven upheaval in supply chains fades and companies return to more conventional ordering cycles. “We have had good signals from our customers about Q2 starting up back to a more normalized or having a more normal environment,” J.B. Hunt President Shelley Simpson said in an earnings conference call Wednesday. “Demand for intermodal capacity was seasonally weaker than normal, as peak season activity leading up to the holidays was absent this year,” Darren Field, president of intermodal at J.B. Hunt, said in the earnings call. He said volumes weakened sequentially during the fourth quarter, with volumes up 4% in October before falling 3% in November and 5% in December. The steepest revenue decline came in J.B. Hunt’s Integrated Capacity Solutions unit, which matches freight loads to trucks.
J.B. Hunt Profit Slides on Slowing Freight Demand
  + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Paul Page | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +2 min
Fourth-quarter profit at trucking and logistics giant J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. fell 17% and revenue growth fell short of expectations as slowing shipping demand cut into freight volumes. Newsletter Sign-up The Logistics Report Top news and in-depth analysis on the world of logistics, from supply chain to transport and technology. PREVIEW“Demand for intermodal capacity was seasonally weak in the fourth quarter, while rail velocity and performance made further progress,” the company said. The steepest revenue decline came in J.B. Hunt’s Integrated Capacity Solutions unit, which matches freight loads to trucks. Revenue at the freight brokerage operation fell 33% from the previous year’s fourth quarter on sharply lower volumes and the business reported a $2.9 million operating loss.
Photo: Sarah Oden/Associated PressWomen and people of color are being hired into top roles in the logistics industry. United Parcel Service Inc. turned to Carol Tomé, a former finance chief at Home Depot Inc., in 2020 to become chief executive officer. Raj Subramaniam, who is from India, was chosen to succeed FedEx Corp. founder Fred Smith as chief executive earlier this year. Judy McReynolds has been chief executive of ArcBest Corp. , one of the largest trucking companies in the U.S., since 2010. Studies also show there is a big gap in pay across the logistics industry.
Logistics CEOs told Insider the picture going into peak season is less clear than in past years. "The consumer is going to have much more choice and availability," Malcolm Wilson, CEO of logistics firm GXO, told Insider. But no one knows if the customers will show up or not," Rubin told Insider. A "smooth" peak isn't necessarily a bad peak — what's almost certain though is that it will look bad compared to last year. "When I look at our customer base, what I see is a degree of optimism about the future, they're continuing to invest," Wilson told Insider.
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